This market pays if, before height 990,499, a Bitcoin output script from this frozen list of 20 published ONBTC addresses is spent into a pox-5 L1 lockup that the contract can prove.
It does not pay if El Salvador bonds from a new address, uses sBTC pools, or bonds coins that never touch this list.
El Salvador’s National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, as the Bitcoin Office publishes it at bitcoin.gob.sv. The list is fixed in the contract at deploy, so a reserve address created afterwards is outside this market. Any one of them counts: the question is whether the reserve bonded, not which wallet did.
Yes pays if a coin sitting at one of the reserve wallets is proven to have been spent into pox-5 bond period 1 before burn block 990,499.
No pays if that deadline passes without the proof. Anyone can settle it, and settling gains them nothing.
On chain the two sides are named Bonded and Idle; this page calls them Yes and No.
Worth knowing: pox-5 records no Bitcoin outpoints against a bond, so nothing on chain ties a lockup to the membership it backs. Whoever controls a reserve wallet could in principle build a lockup that satisfies every check without really bonding. It costs them a twelve cycle timelock and earns them no rewards, so it is a priced risk rather than a free one.